China is planning to scrap all limits on the number of children a family can have, according to people familiar with the matter, in what would be a historic end to a policy that spurred countless human-rights abuses and left the world’s second-largest economy short of workers.
China’s population is aging rapidly, with the number of births falling by 3.5 percent to 17.23 million last year despite the country’s decision in late 2015 to relax the controversial “one-child” policy and allow couples to have a second child.
The State Council, or cabinet, has commissioned research on ending the country’s birth limits on a nationwide basis, the Bloomberg report said.
A decision could be made in the last quarter of this year or in 2019, the report said.
China implemented its one-child policy in the 1970s to limit population growth, but authorities are concerned that a dwindling workforce will not be able to support an increasingly aging population.
The one-child policy also contributed to a sharp gender imbalance, with 32.66 million more males than females at the end of 2017.
“It’s late for China to remove birth limits even within this year but it’s better than never,” said Chen Jian, a former division chief at the National Family Planning Commission, who’s now a vice president of the China Society of Economic Reform. “Scrapping birth limits will have little effect on the tendency of China’s declining births.”
Danone, which has doubled its share of China’s baby food market in the past five years, rose to a session high in Paris before paring gains. Reckitt Benckiser shares erased declines in London.
The policy change would close the book on one of the largest social experiments in human history, which left the world’s most-populous country with a rapidly aging population and 30 million more men than women. The policies have forced generations of Chinese parents to pay fines, submit to abortions or raise children in the shadows.
The US and other Western nations have criticized the coercive measures required to enforce the birth limits, including steep fines, sterilization and forced abortions. The 2015 shift toward a two-child policy was part of a gradual effort to loosen the birth limits over the years as China’s working-age population began to wane.
An initial feasibility study was submitted to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in April, according to one of the people familiar with the discussions. That study found there would be “limited” benefits to lifting birth restrictions nationwide. Li requested more research on the social impact of scrapping the policy altogether, the person said.
Neither the State Council Information Office nor the National Health Commission immediately returned faxed requests for comment Monday.
“The policy shift will hardly boost the number of newborns in China,” said Huang Wenzheng, a specially-invited senior researcher of Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank.”China’s number of births will continue to drop dramatically, considering a sharp decrease in the number of fertile women and declining fertility willingness. “
Still, the move underscores growing concern among Chinese policy makers that more dramatic action is needed three years after allowing all families to have two children instead of one. Births fell 3.5 percent to 17.2 million nationwide last year, according to the Bureau of National Statistics, erasing almost half of the increase in births caused by relaxing the policy.
China’s graying society will have broad consequences for the nation and the world, weighing on President Xi Jinping’s effort to develop the economy, driving up pension and healthcare costs, and sending foreign companies further afield for labor. The State Council last year projected that about a quarter of China’s population will be 60 or older by 2030, up from 13 percent in 2010.
“The low birth rate and low number of newborns from the previous two years after the two-child policy sent a strong message to the decision-makers that the young generation has a weak willingness to have more children,” Chen said. “China’s population issues will be a major hurdle for President Xi Jinping’s vision of building a modernized country by 2035.”
In March, China removed the term “family planning” from the name of the newly consolidated National Health Commission — the first time since 1981 that no agency bears the name. Xi and Li also omitted any reference to the phrase from key policy reports in recent months.
