The naira closed the past week weaker than the previous one, as it depreciated by 0.14 per cent week-on-week to settle at 1,532.34/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market.
This weakening came despite the naira rebounding to a four-month high on the first trading day to close at 1,518.88/$. After that, it weakened to 1,530.25/$, then lower to 1,533.11/$ before gaining some strength to close the week at 1,532.34/$ at the official market.
During the past week, the highest amount that the naira traded for was 1,538/$, and the lowest was 1,515/$ on the NFEM.
At the parallel market, the currency closed trading within the band of 1,535.00/$ and 1,544.00/$1.
Analysts have maintained that the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria and improvement in the foreign exchange liquidity were essential to stabilising the naira at the FX market.
Cowry Assets Management Limited, in its weekly market report, averred that the naira had recorded mixed trading across the markets as it appreciated slightly by 0.06 per cent week-on-week to close at 1,544.00/$1 at the parallel market while closing in the red zone at the official market.
The divergent movements reflect ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the evolving FX liquidity landscape, stated the analysts, who, however, maintained that the naira looks to record further gains as improved oil output and elevated prices drive higher dollar inflows, which could sustain the current pace of reserve accretion.
The positive oil earnings outlook, combined with steady capital inflows, should offer continued support for the naira and enhance near-term FX market stability, the report added.
Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shows that the average daily crude oil production (excluding condensates) rose by 3.6 per cent to 1.51 million barrels per day in June 2025 from 1.45 mbpd in May. This marks the first time in five months that Nigeria has met its OPEC production quota, reflecting improvements in operational efficiencies and security around key oil-producing assets.
AIICO Capital Limited, in its weekly report, noted that the CBN had intervened intermittently in the FX market in the past week.
It stated, Dollar sales early and late in the week helped maintain relative stability. The naira closed at 1,532.34/$, down 13.6 bps w/w. Reserves rose by $422m to $37.85bn as of Thursday from $37.43bn in the previous week.
It is expected that the naira will likely hold its current range amid better liquidity, while markets weigh potential FX impacts from the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision starting Monday (today).
Analysts are split on what the decision of the MPC should be regarding the benchmark. On one side, doves are calling for a modest rate cut, pointing to cooling inflation, a more stable naira, and signs of reform traction. On the other hand, hawks are warning that premature easing could undo all the gains of FX reforms and decelerating inflation, especially with food supply shocks and global risk still very much in the picture.
For now, traders are positioning around the edges, but the real signal will come from the tone of the communique, Comercio Partners asserted.
