Nigeria’s food inflation rate dropped to 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, marking the lowest level in over 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Headline inflation also eased slightly, falling to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December 2025. This is contrary to analysts’ earlier forecasts that projected inflation could reach 19% in January.
Despite the positive trend, members of the Organised Private Sector (OPS) urged caution, attributing the marginal decline in headline inflation to increased food production and exchange rate stability.
The 8.89% food inflation rate is the first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when it stood at 8.66%. Food inflation had remained in double digits for 128 consecutive months, rising above 10% in June 2015 and only returning to single digits in January 2026.
NBS data showed a steep fall in food inflation from 29.63% in January 2025 to 8.89% in January 2026, a decline of 20.73 percentage points over the year. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02% in January, compared to a 0.36% decline in December 2025.
The NBS attributed this slowdown to price reductions in items such as water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava tubers.
On a 12-month average basis, food inflation was 20.29% in January 2026, down from 38.47% in January 2025. This moderation follows an extended period of surging inflation between 2022 and 2024, when food inflation rose from 23.75% in December 2022 to a peak of 40.87% in June 2024, before steadily declining.
Headline inflation, meanwhile, declined to 15.10% in January 2026, the lowest in over five years. The CPI fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease. Year-on-year, headline inflation dropped by 12.51 percentage points from 27.61% in January 2025. Month-on-month, the rate was negative 2.88% in January, compared to 0.54% in December.
Urban inflation stood at 15.36% year-on-year in January 2026, down from 29.45% a year earlier. Rural inflation was 14.44%, lower than the 25.04% recorded in January 2025. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 17.72% year-on-year, down from 25.27% in January 2025.
At the state level, Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation at 22.48%, followed by Kogi (20.98%) and the Federal Capital Territory (19.25%). Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo reported the lowest headline inflation rates. For food inflation, Kogi, Benue, and Adamawa posted the highest year-on-year rates, while Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo saw the slowest increases.
The data indicates a broad-based easing in price pressures, largely driven by the sharp drop in food costs. However, the elevated 12-month averages suggest earlier inflation spikes are still influencing overall price levels.
OPS Reactions
Stakeholders in the Organised Private Sector acknowledged the improved inflation figures but warned that the reduction had not yet translated into relief for consumers.
Kuti-George, National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, attributed the moderation to increased agricultural production and a more stable exchange rate. He noted reductions in the prices of some items and expressed optimism for the year ahead.
However, Eke Ubiji, Director-General of the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, argued that the lower inflation rate had not eased the cost of living. “Cost of living is very, very high. The evidence on the ground does not justify what is being put forward to the masses. Even if you carry N10,000 to the market, what are you going to buy?” he said.
Ubiji pointed out that both food and non-food items remain expensive and vulnerable to price increases, emphasizing that the slowdown in inflation does not mean prices are falling, only that they are rising more slowly. He cautioned the government against premature optimism, warning that the underlying realities of high prices persist.
