Nigerians are contending with a deepening cost of living crisis as food inflation surges in tandem with skyrocketing fuel and energy prices.
This development comes as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu visits the United Kingdom at the invitation of King Charles III.
According to Consumer Price Index and Inflation data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s food inflation jumped to 12.12 percent in February 2026, up from 8.89 percent in January.
The NBS attributed this month-on-month rise to higher average prices of staples such as beans, carrots, okazi leaf, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, yam flour, snails, avenger (ogbono/apon), and cowpeas.
Meanwhile, headline inflation saw a slight decline, dropping by 0.04 percentage points to 15.06 percent in February from 15.10 percent in January. However, the data also showed prices rising more rapidly month-on-month, with inflation at 2.01 percent in February compared to -2.88 percent in January.
Fuel Prices Continue Upward Climb
The increase in food inflation coincided with a sharp rise in fuel prices, which soared to as much as N1,330 per liter from N875–N900 per liter following the escalation of the Iran-United States-Israel conflict at the end of February 2026.
Compounding the situation, Dangote Refinery raised its gantry petrol price for the fourth time last week to N1,175 per liter, amid crude oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel.
This triggered further increases at the pump, with MRS filling stations raising retail fuel prices by N100 per liter and Optima Filling Stations by N50, to N1,267 and N1,270 per liter respectively in Abuja as of Monday.
Elsewhere, retail outlets of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other stations, such as Raniol, AA Rano, Empire Energy, NIPCO, and Shema, are selling petrol between N1,261 and N1,330 per liter. The surge in fuel prices has led to higher transportation costs nationwide over the past two weeks.
Economists Explain Food Price Spike
Economists have weighed in on the February spike in food prices, despite the slight easing of headline inflation.
Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive of Economic Associates, told Gidipoint that the uptick in food prices is largely seasonal, as economic activity typically picks up after the holidays. Food prices rising in February shouldn’t be a surprise. It may reflect seasonal factors and increased activity after the holidays, Teriba explained.
He noted that such fluctuations are common and not necessarily indicative of renewed inflationary pressure. Before concluding that food prices are rising alarmingly, remember they fell in January. The pattern could become clearer in the coming months.
Teriba also expressed concern over inconsistencies in NBS’s inflation data, recalling that the agency had previously revised its published figures. The NBS’s unpredictability makes it hard to draw firm conclusions, but a few more months of data should establish a clearer trend, he said.
According to Teriba, the current volatility in food prices could either signal the start of a new inflationary cycle or simply reflect short-term fluctuations. After two and a half years of clear inflation trends, it’s too soon to say whether this is the beginning of another long period of accelerating prices or just a temporary swing, he added.
Marginal Inflation Relief Offers Little Comfort
Godwin Oyedokun, a professor of accounting and finance at Lead City University, argued that the marginal decline in headline inflation provides little relief for households burdened by the rising cost of living.
The 0.04 percentage point drop in headline inflation from January to February is too small to offer any real respite. Inflation remains high, and Nigerians continue to feel the pinch, Oyedokun said.
He warned that the rise in food inflation to 12.12 percent is particularly troubling, as food accounts for the largest share of household spending, especially among low- and middle-income earners. Higher food prices directly erode purchasing power and push more families into poverty, he noted.
Oyedokun identified several structural challenges behind the food price surge, including high energy costs, insecurity in key farming regions, logistics bottlenecks, and post-harvest losses. These factors, he explained, contribute to cost-push inflation, where increased production costs are passed on to consumers.
Unless these supply-side constraints are addressed, food prices may keep rising even if overall inflation moderates, he warned.
He called for urgent action to tackle these structural issues—improving security in agricultural areas, investing in infrastructure and logistics, and providing targeted support for the food supply chain. Oyedokun also emphasized the need for policymakers to focus on real welfare indicators such as household purchasing power, employment, and food accessibility, rather than relying solely on inflation statistics.
In essence, while a slight drop in headline inflation may suggest technical stability, the surge in food prices highlights the persistent hardship facing many Nigerians and underscores the urgent need for stronger policy intervention, he concluded.
